They’re Not Selling, and It’s Breaking the Market
The year is 2025. A three-bedroom, 1960s bungalow in Vancouver’s Dunbar neighborhood has just been listed for $3.8 million. The house is in original condition—orange carpets, pink bathrooms, knob-and-tube wiring. The listing agent calls it a “character home,” but let’s be honest: it’s a teardown.
The seller? A 79-year-old widow who lived there for 47 years and paid off the mortgage in 1995.
The buyers? No one—yet. The listing’s been sitting for 93 days.
This isn’t just a West Side problem. Across Metro Vancouver and Canada’s other unaffordable cities, baby boomers are sitting on the most valuable real estate in the country, refusing to sell, renovate, redevelop, or downsize. Their homes are often underused, overvalued, and completely untouchable to younger buyers.
And the result is a housing market that’s become frozen in time, locked by legacy ownership patterns that distort supply, suffocate inventory, and push up prices.
“We’ve created a geriatric housing economy,” says urban planner Diane Taylor. “One where multimillion-dollar assets are trapped inside the 70+ crowd, and everyone under 40 is just circling around, waiting.”
This is The Baby Boomer Real Estate Time Bomb—a generational standoff that’s holding the Canadian housing market hostage.
And when it finally goes off? The shockwaves could reshape everything.
How Boomers Won the Housing Lottery—and Never Left the Table
If you were born between 1946 and 1964, you didn’t just grow up in the postwar boom—you benefited from it every step of the way. And nowhere was that more evident than in housing. Let’s take a quick look at how good boomers had it:
In 1976, the average Canadian home price was $54,000.
By 1985, it was $86,000.
By 1995, it was $150,000.
By 2005, it had climbed to $250,000.
And by 2022, the national average home price hit $816,720, according to CREA.
In Vancouver and Toronto, that number was far higher. A detached home in West Vancouver that cost $200,000 in 1980 is now worth $3.5 million. That’s not appreciation—it’s a lottery win paid out over 40 years, tax-free if it’s your principal residence.
The result? Boomers now hold almost 70% of Canada’s real estate wealth, per data from StatsCan.
Why Aren’t They Selling?
Simple: they don’t need to. Most boomers own their homes outright, have low property taxes due to long-term assessments, and—thanks to the principal residence exemption—have zero incentive to cash out unless they’re forced to.
In fact, selling is often seen as losing:
Downsizing means less space, less status, and higher cost per square foot.
Moving means giving up neighbors, routines, and emotional ties.
Renting is seen as “throwing money away”—a deeply ingrained belief from a generation raised on ownership.
And retirement homes? Too expensive, too bleak, or too much of a “last resort.”
So they stay. And stay. And stay. Meanwhile, their kids (and grandkids) can’t even buy into the neighborhoods they grew up in.
“My parents live in a $2.7M house they paid $210,000 for,” says Derek, a 39-year-old renter in Vancouver. “It’s just them now. They use two rooms. They won’t sell, won’t rent it out, won’t redevelop. It’s basically a museum of 1994.”
Boomer Housing Is Creating Phantom Inventory
Across B.C. and Ontario, you’ll find entire blocks of high-value homes that are:
Owner-occupied by one or two seniors
Underused, with empty bedrooms, empty basements, and no rental activity
Untouchable—not listed, not for sale, not entering the market anytime soon
This is what economists call “hidden supply”—homes that exist, but aren’t functionally available. In Vancouver, as many as 1 in 4 detached homes in high-value neighborhoods are occupied by a single person over 65, per CMHC data. In Oak Bay, West Vancouver, and parts of Richmond, that number climbs higher.
These homes represent billions in locked equity—but they’re not coming online. Not unless someone dies, downsizes, or gets pushed by health or economic need. And in a housing market starved for supply? That’s a catastrophic bottleneck.
The Consequences: How Boomer Housing Hoarding Warps Prices, Planning, and Policy
When 70% of housing wealth is concentrated in one generation—and that generation doesn’t move, sell, rent, or redevelop—you get a completely distorted housing economy.
Because it’s not just about supply. It’s about how that supply is distributed, protected, and prioritized. And in Canada, especially in places like Vancouver and Toronto, the system has been bent around the comfort of aging homeowners, to the detriment of nearly everyone else.
Zoning: The Unspoken Boomer Fortress
Let’s start with zoning.
In Vancouver, over 80% of residential land is zoned for single-family homes—a land-use model designed in the 1950s to cater to nuclear families, backyards, and cars. That zoning has barely changed, despite massive population growth, urban density, and the complete collapse of affordability.
Why? Because the people most impacted by zoning reform—boomer homeowners—don’t want change.
They fight duplexes and fourplexes on their block.
They oppose rental infill or coach houses behind their homes.
They write angry letters when bus routes bring “undesirables.”
They flood city halls to protest “neighborhood character loss” whenever council proposes densification.
And cities listen—because boomers vote.
“You can’t get a laneway house approved in some neighborhoods without a full Greek tragedy,” says Leo Cheng, a Vancouver-based planner. “These homeowners treat zoning reform like an invasion.”
This refusal to allow even modest density has choked new housing supply and enshrined artificial scarcity, driving up prices for everyone not already in the club.
Taxes: Structured for Stasis, Not Mobility
Then there’s the tax structure. Let’s be blunt: Canada subsidizes boomer ownership through inaction. We do not tax housing wealth in any meaningful way. Instead, we:
Exempt principal residence capital gains—so boomers pay nothing when they cash out $1M+ in profit.
Keep property taxes low, thanks to assessments frozen decades ago.
Offer home renovation credits, deferral programs, and caregiver benefits targeted at seniors.
Have no inheritance tax, meaning wealth is passed down untouched to the next generation.
Compare this to other countries:
In the U.K., capital gains on second homes are taxed heavily.
In Germany, homeowners pay annual value-based taxes.
In the U.S., property taxes are reassessed at market value regularly.
Here? A boomer couple sitting on a $4M Shaughnessy house might pay less annual tax than a renter pays in GST on groceries. It’s the perfect incentive to do nothing—to stay, sit, and accumulate equity while the rest of the market burns.
Housing Policy Has Been Built Around Not Upsetting Boomers
Politicians know who votes. And so, for the last 30 years, most housing policies have been carefully crafted to protect boomer wealth while appearing pro-affordability. Let’s take a walk down memory lane:
The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (2019): Gives millennials debt leverage without touching prices.
Empty Homes Tax: Targets foreign buyers, not domestic boomers with three homes and no tenants.
Speculation Tax: Exemptions for most domestic owners with even flimsy residency claims.
Gentle Density: Token rezonings that take 10+ years to produce real inventory.
Principal Residence Exemption: Still untouched despite ballooning wealth inequality.
And even recent moves—like the foreign buyer ban and Airbnb crackdowns—have mostly avoided the sacred cow: boomer-owned primary residences. Because the minute you suggest taxing equity, reassessing property value, or mandating development? The calls flood in. The donors threaten to walk. The retirement voters revolt. “Boomers didn’t just win the housing game,” says policy analyst Ryan T., “They rewrote the rules so no one else could play.”
The Great Inheritance Wave: What Happens When the Boomers Die (or Finally Sell)?
If the market seems frozen today, it’s only because the biggest transfer of wealth in Canadian history is still just over the horizon.
We’re talking about the $1 trillion intergenerational transfer—a phrase so common in policy circles it has its own acronym: IGT. According to RBC Wealth Management, Canadian boomers are expected to pass down over $1 trillion in real estate and financial assets over the next 10–15 years.
Real estate makes up the lion’s share of that. That means millions of homes, worth millions each, are about to change hands—either through inheritance or post-retirement liquidation. So what happens then? That’s where the time bomb starts ticking louder.
Scenario 1: The “Hold Forever” Heirs
Many millennial and Gen X children of boomers aren’t in a hurry to sell their inherited homes. Why would they?
It’s free wealth.
It’s often mortgage-free.
And it’s viewed as a rare foothold in a market they couldn’t otherwise afford.
Some move in. Others rent them out—joining the small-landlord class, collecting passive income, and perpetuating the exact supply scarcity that’s kept prices sky-high. But most? They sit on it. Because why sell an appreciating $2.5M Vancouver property if you don’t have to?
“My brother and I inherited our parents’ house in North Van,” says Mariam, 41. “We rent it to a family for $5,200/month. We’d never sell—we can’t replace it. It’s our retirement plan now.”
This creates a generational hoarding effect: properties stay off-market, renters stay locked out, and prices stay elevated—even after the original boomer owner is gone.
Scenario 2: The Panic Sell-Off
The more disruptive scenario? The Great Liquidation. This happens if:
Boomers retire without adequate cash flow and decide to cash out.
Health declines force rapid downsizing.
Heirs face capital needs, and can’t hold the property.
A policy shift (say, an inheritance or vacancy tax) makes holding less attractive.
Or a market correction wipes out equity and triggers a sell-off.
If this happens at scale—especially during a recession or rate hike cycle—you could see tens of thousands of homes flood the market in a short window.
That would:
Tank prices in certain neighborhoods.
Hit property tax revenue.
Trigger political backlash from both retirees and young homeowners who bought at peak.
Upend the speculative investor market that’s been betting on endless appreciation.
It hasn’t happened yet. But the signs are there: in rising property tax deferrals, in aging populations holding most assets, and in the lack of downsizing options available.
Scenario 3: The Policy Shock
There’s also a third possibility: governments panic and intervene. If home prices stagnate while ownership becomes increasingly concentrated in aging estates, we could see:
A principal residence capital gains tax (already being floated quietly by think tanks)
Inheritance taxes on property values over a certain threshold
Forced rental registration for unoccupied inherited homes
New property tax brackets tied to assessed value bands
Incentives for early sales, like downsizing rebates or land transfer tax waivers
These policies would be controversial—but the political climate is shifting. In 2024, an Abacus Data poll found that over 60% of Canadians under 45 support taxing homes worth over $2M, especially if proceeds are used for affordable housing. Boomers may still hold the assets. But they’re slowly losing the narrative.
Why This Transfer Won’t Fix the Market
Some optimists argue that once boomers pass, housing will naturally become more available and affordable.
But this assumes:
That heirs will sell quickly
That they’ll price realistically
That cities will allow redevelopments
That policy won’t keep incentivizing hoarding
All of which is incredibly unlikely. Instead, we may end up with a generation of accidental landlords—people who inherit properties, rent them out, and hold until their own retirement.
The time bomb doesn’t go off in one bang. It slowly leaks pressure into a new status quo.
“The biggest risk,” says housing economist Lili Chow, “is that we just pass the dysfunction on—without ever confronting it.”
Solutions Nobody Wants: How to Defuse the Boomer Housing Crisis Before It Blows Up
Let’s be honest. If this were any other kind of market failure—say, telecommunications, groceries, or gas—governments would’ve intervened a decade ago.
But this isn’t just any market. It’s the most politically radioactive issue in the country: housing. And when the group most responsible for that market—baby boomers—also represents the largest, wealthiest, and most reliable voting bloc, you get paralysis.
Still, if we’re serious about addressing affordability, intergenerational inequity, and dysfunctional supply, defusing the boomer time bomb has to be part of the conversation. So let’s talk about what that would actually take.
1. Tax Housing Wealth. Yes, Really.
Canada is one of the few OECD countries that does not tax housing wealth in any meaningful way. Property taxes are low, gains on principal residences are untaxed, and inheritance flows largely untouched.
A real fix would mean:
Introducing a modest capital gains tax on principal residences above a certain value, say $2M+
Implementing an annual progressive property tax on homes over $3M, regardless of tenure
Exploring inheritance or estate taxes specifically targeting real estate portfolios, with exemptions for primary dwellings under a threshold
These policies are common in places like France, Germany, and even parts of the U.S. But in Canada? Still taboo.
Until now. Recent reports from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and Generation Squeeze are pushing hard for these tools—and public opinion is shifting. Slowly.
2. Break Zoning Monopolies in Boomer-Dominated Areas
If boomers won’t sell, fine. But the land still needs to be productive. That means:
Mandating multiplex zoning citywide—not just in “pilot zones”
Removing neighborhood-level vetoes over development
Fast-tracking property-splitting and lot reconfiguration where single-family homes sit on oversized lots
Encouraging co-housing, multi-generational rentals, and low-rise densification in aging homeowner neighborhoods
Boomers shouldn’t be evicted. But their zoning protections? Absolutely fair game.
3. Make Downsizing Actually Worth It
If we want older homeowners to sell, they need good options.
That means:
Building affordable, high-quality senior-friendly condos in the same neighborhoods
Offering downsizing tax credits and land transfer tax rebates
Making it easier to convert homes into legal duplexes, suites, or multi-tenant rentals—and actually supporting them with grants and inspections
Right now, a lot of boomers would move—if it weren’t more expensive, more stressful, and more uncertain than just staying put.
4. Protect Tenants in Inherited and Underused Homes
As more homes are passed to children, there’s a growing trend of “renoviction-by-inheritance”:
Parent dies → home is inherited → tenant is evicted → home is left empty or rented at double the price
We need laws that:
Require continuation of tenancy after inheritance (with clear exceptions)
Enforce occupancy minimums in high-value neighborhoods
Crack down on speculative holding under the guise of “waiting to decide what to do with the house”
5. Stop Letting Boomers Shape All Housing Policy
Boomers have shaped Canadian housing policy for decades. From CMHC priorities to tax shelters to municipal zoning, their fingerprints are everywhere.
It’s time to rebalance the table:
Mandatory demographic diversity on housing boards and advisory panels
Policy weighting based on population need, not voting power
Support for youth housing organizations to organize, lobby, and push back
Because if the only voices in the room are people who bought for $130,000 in 1984… we’re going to be stuck in 1984 forever.
The Time Bomb Isn’t Inevitable—But the Window’s Closing
We’re not saying boomers should be blamed for everything. They didn’t single-handedly cause the crisis. But they’ve benefitted more than any generation in history—and Canada’s housing future is now sitting inside their living rooms.
If they don’t move, the market won’t move.
If they don’t sell, prices won’t correct.
If they don’t let go, we’re stuck.
And when the transfers begin—through inheritance, panic sales, or tax reform—the fallout could reshape everything. Or we can keep pretending nothing’s wrong. Until it all hits the fan.
Related Articles