The Listings Are Everywhere. The Sales Are Not.
Drive through almost any Vancouver neighborhood right now—Dunbar, Point Grey, Kerrisdale, even parts of East Van—and the story is the same: For Sale signs as far as the eye can see.
Detached homes. Townhomes. Luxury condos. New builds. Teardowns. They're all up for grabs. But no one's biting.
According to the latest Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) stats, March 2025 saw active listings jump to over 12,600—the highest for that month in over five years. Detached home listings are up 35% year-over-year, townhomes are up 22%, and even condos—once the darling of investor interest—are flooding the market with a 28% YOY spike in inventory.
And yet? Sales are flatlining.
Despite more listings, total home sales in Metro Vancouver fell 4.7% year-over-year in March. Detached home sales were down 11%, even with more inventory available. And the luxury market? It’s comatose. In West Vancouver, only 12 homes sold in all of March. That’s one sale every 2.5 days in an entire municipality.
Even worse: homes that do sell are often sitting on the market three to five times longer than they did in 2021. The average days-on-market for detached homes in West Side Vancouver? 91 days. In Richmond? 85 days. And in some areas of North Vancouver, listings are pushing 120+ days without offers.
This isn’t just a slow spring. It’s a complete standoff. A frozen, dysfunctional market where nothing moves unless someone caves. And right now? No one is caving.
We’re in a Mexican Standoff Between Sellers and Reality
Sellers, many of whom watched their home values double (or triple) between 2012 and 2021, are still anchored to fantasy numbers. They believe they deserve top dollar because:
Their neighbor sold for $2.8M in 2021.
They did a $95K kitchen reno during the pandemic.
Their realtor “told them” the market is coming back.
They can’t mentally accept losing $300,000 on paper.
So they sit. They relist. They switch agents. They throw in a new coat of paint. And they wait. Some drop their prices by $10K–$25K and think they’ve made a bold move. Others offer vague incentives like “$5,000 decorating credit” or “free gas BBQ included.” It’s laughable.
What they don’t realize? They’ve priced themselves out of a buyer pool that no longer exists.
The people who used to overpay—the foreign cash investors, the FOMO buyers, the interest-rate-immune flippers—they’re gone. The interest rate hikes didn’t just raise borrowing costs. They shattered buyer psychology. And yet sellers remain stuck in delusional optimism, buoyed by agents who are too scared to tell them the truth:
“Your house isn’t worth what you think it is anymore—and if you don’t adjust, it’s going to sit. For a long time.”
The Buyer Pool Has Collapsed—And It's Not Coming Back Soon
Back in the heyday of 2020–2021, you could sell a leaky, half-renovated Vancouver Special for $1.9 million with 14 offers on day one. Interest rates were 1.25%. Buyers were pre-approved before they walked in the door. Inventory was low, confidence was high, and “buy now or be priced out forever” was gospel.
But now?
The Bank of Canada overnight rate sits at 2.75%, and 5-year fixed mortgage rates hover around 5.39–5.89%.
Monthly payments for an $800,000 mortgage have jumped from $2,600 to nearly $4,700.
The stress test requires buyers to qualify at 7.5% or higher—slashing purchasing power by up to 30%.
And inflation is making saving for a down payment nearly impossible.
Today’s buyers are older, poorer, and more cautious. They’ve seen friends buy at the top and regret it. They’ve seen listings sit. They know prices are softening. And most importantly? They know they have the power to walk. The result is what economists call a price expectation mismatch: sellers still think it’s 2021. Buyers know it’s 2025. And the gap between those two realities is so wide no one’s willing to cross it.
Renovated 80s Teardowns for $2.9M? How Quality Doesn’t Match the Price Anymore
“How the hell is this house $3 million?”
Welcome to the “rotting teardown with granite countertops” era of Vancouver real estate—where outdated, poorly maintained, or lazily flipped homes are still being listed at bubble-era prices with zero shame and even less justification. It’s not just overpriced. It’s insulting.
The Delusion of “Just Add Staging”
In many neighborhoods—especially the West Side, North Van, and Burnaby—you’ll see homes built in 1985, with wood rot, aluminum windows, DIY electrical, and suspicious basement additions—all listed for $2.7M to $3.4M.
Why? Because the seller put in:
New flooring (usually the cheapest laminate available)
A basic kitchen with glossy white cabinets and quartz counters
Some pot lights
Fake plants and plastic bowls of lemons for staging
And one line in the listing: “Completely renovated! Move-in ready!”
But walk through in person and you’ll spot:
Uneven floors
A roof from 2002
Electrical panels that scream “inspector’s nightmare”
Leaky windows
Smells the photos can’t capture
These homes might have sold for $2.8M in 2021. But today? Buyers are walking in, taking one look, and walking right back out.
They know that for $3 million, they should be getting quality construction, livability, and long-term value—not a lipstick-on-a-pig flip that needs another $500,000 to make safe.
The Pre-Sale Condo Problem: Looks Rich, Built Cheap
Buyers walk into $1.9M “sky homes” with: Crooked tile work, Thin, echoing walls, Warped doors, Baseboards already peeling, and Elevators that haven’t worked properly since occupancy.
Many units aren’t even finished on time. Deficiency lists run 20–100+ items deep, with months of repairs needed after move-in. And yet? Developers are still pricing these condos like it’s 2021, often banking on foreign buyers who aren’t touring units in person.
But today’s domestic buyers? They’re savvier. They’re not dazzled by renderings. They’re not falling for fake quartz and “engineered hardwood” that feels like cardboard. And they’re definitely not paying $1,600/sq.ft for something that won’t last a decade.
Sellers Think “Nice” = “Luxury.” Buyers Know Better.
This is the crux of the Vancouver quality-price disconnect:
Sellers think granite counters and open-concept living rooms justify luxury prices.
Buyers look at insulation, layout flow, structural integrity, and long-term livability.
In 2016, you could list a 2-bed, 2-bath condo in Yaletown for $1.5M and expect 12 showings in a weekend. Now? Buyers walk in, see that the floor squeaks and the hallway smells like weed, and keep walking. One realtor recently confessed, “Every time I book a showing, my buyer brings a flashlight to check behind drywall. It’s humiliating.”
Another agent told CTV in a March interview, “I’ve got listings in Richmond with 15-year-old appliances and cracked stucco walls still priced over $2 million. Sellers won’t negotiate. Buyers won’t offer. So we sit.” This isn’t just about overpriced homes. It’s about a fundamental mismatch between price and product. And the more buyers feel insulted by what they’re being offered, the more they delay. That delay becomes market paralysis.
Homebuilders and Sellers Keep Blaming the Market—Not Themselves
It’s become a Vancouver cliché: “It’s the market. Things are slow right now.” No. The market is rational. What’s irrational are sellers and developers who still believe:
Buyers are blind.
The 2021 gold rush is coming back.
A coat of white paint adds $300,000 in value.
No one will notice that the “brand-new build” has moisture damage in the crawlspace.
Until quality begins to match asking price, expect continued silence from the buyer pool. Because it’s not just about affordability. It’s about value. And right now? Most of what’s listed in Vancouver isn’t offering any.
Interest Rates, Holding Costs, and Why Even the Rich Are Getting Nervous
There’s an old belief in Vancouver real estate: “It doesn’t matter what rates do—the rich buy in cash.” It’s a comforting myth. A lazy one. And now, it’s collapsing under the weight of math, macroeconomics, and months-long listings that won’t move even in the top 1%.
Because guess what? Even the rich care about opportunity cost. And in 2025, Vancouver real estate isn’t offering much opportunity—or confidence.
Holding a Home Is Now Expensive. Really Expensive.
Let’s break this down in real numbers. Say you own a West Side Vancouver detached home valued at $3.5 million. You’re not mortgaged to the teeth. Great. But unless that home is your primary residence—and fully paid off—it’s now a money-draining liability, not an appreciating asset.
Here’s why:
Property taxes: $12,000–$18,000 per year
Utilities: $5,000–$8,000 per year
Maintenance and insurance: $10,000+ annually
Opportunity cost: That same $3.5M could be earning 4.75% risk-free in GICs—that’s $166,250 per year you're leaving on the table by parking it in a frozen asset.
So unless you’re actively living in it—or flipping it for tax-free gains—you’re burning money to hold onto a property that isn’t selling and isn’t gaining value.
And if you have a mortgage? That picture’s worse:
A $1.5M loan at 5.49% = $8,000–$9,000/month in payments
Qualifying buyers must now meet the 7.5%+ stress test
And renewals? Many are seeing their rates double or triple from what they paid in 2020
Even “wealthy” homeowners are asking:
“Why are we paying $100K+ per year to hold something we don’t use, can’t sell, and that’s falling in value?”
Developers Are Pulling Back. So Are Private Lenders.
Luxury developers and high-end flippers—who once gobbled up teardown lots and pre-sales like candy—are now backing away, delaying launches, or dumping inventory below market.
The reason? Capital has dried up.
Private lenders (MICs and syndicates) are charging 10–12% interest on builder financing.
Hard-money loans are harder to get—especially on homes sitting over 90 days.
Construction costs remain high. Pre-sale absorption is slowing. Profit margins are razor thin.
And without fresh investor money chasing appreciation? The flipping game dies. Listings sit. Builders halt. Risk piles up.
Meanwhile, multi-unit pre-sales in areas like Oakridge, Cambie Corridor, and Metrotown are being quietly repackaged with incentives, commissions, or delayed completions, just to move product. Even the big players—Westbank, Concord, Onni—are reconsidering timelines.
They won’t say the market’s broken. But they’ll show you—in the form of stalled excavations and relisted “VIP” units.
Sellers Are Waiting for Rate Cuts. Buyers Are Waiting for Price Cuts.
This is the classic trap of a high-rate environment:
Sellers keep hearing that rates will fall in 2025. So they wait.
Buyers know rates will eventually fall—but expect prices to drop first. So they wait.
Result? Everyone freezes.
The Bank of Canada may hint at softening in late 2025, but even if rates fall by 1–1.5 percentage points, affordability won’t return to pandemic levels. And many economists, including from RBC and Scotiabank, agree: the current floor for interest rates is likely around 3.5–4%.
That means today’s price-to-income mismatch won’t be “fixed” by rates alone. Something else has to give. And it’s increasingly clear that what’s going to give… is prices.
Even Wealthy Buyers Are Getting Picky
The myth that rich buyers are irrational is another dangerous delusion. Truth is, wealthy buyers are often more disciplined than mid-tier ones. They run opportunity cost comparisons, pay attention to tax optimization, analyze value per square foot, and evaluate resale timelines and capital gains scenarios.
“Cool. Call me when it hits $5.4.”
And when a luxury condo downtown offers a $3,000/month strata fee and $10,000/year in taxes? The investor math says:
“That’s $46,000 a year in overhead for 1.5% annual appreciation? No thanks.”
That’s why even the high end isn’t moving. Not because rich buyers are broke. But because they’re finally getting smart.
The Myth of a Hot Spring Market—Why Seasonal Trends Aren’t Coming to Save You This Time
Every year, realtors and sellers alike cling to one magical belief like it’s gospel:
“Spring is coming. That’s when things always pick up.”
Historically, sure. Spring has meant more listings, more buyers, faster sales, and higher prices. It’s when families look to move before summer break. When weather improves. When open houses get foot traffic. When optimism returns.
But 2025? That energy isn’t showing up.
Instead, we’re seeing a spring market that’s all listings and no action. A bloated, passive, wishful-thinking inventory glut that’s colliding with a buyer pool that’s suspicious, interest-rate fatigued, and tired of being insulted by laughably overpriced homes. The usual cycle is broken. And we need to talk about why.
Buyers Aren’t Motivated by Seasons Anymore—They’re Motivated by Value
In previous markets, buyers rushed into spring with urgency:
“Rates are low—we have to act now.”
“Inventory is scarce—we can’t wait.”
“We’ll get priced out if we delay.”
All of those motivators are gone in 2025.
Rates are still high and holding.
Inventory is abundant and growing.
Prices are flat or falling, especially at the top end.
And every headline is about layoffs, inflation, or buyers backing out of deals.
There’s no FOMO anymore. There’s no blind optimism. There’s no desperation. What’s replaced it is a cold-blooded buyer psychology:
“Prove to me your home is worth what you’re asking. Otherwise, I’m out.”
That’s not seasonal. That’s structural. And it’s not changing with the weather.
Spring Listings Are Up—But They’re Just the Same Overpriced Homes Relisted Again
According to REBGV data, March 2025 saw a 21.3% increase in new listings compared to March 2024.
Sounds good, right? Not really.
Because a massive chunk of these “new” listings are actually:
Relistings of homes that didn’t sell in winter
Homes with superficial price reductions ($5K–$10K)
Properties staged differently but otherwise unchanged
Listings pulled in December, then “relaunched” for spring with the same price and hope
In one East Vancouver neighborhood, 8 out of 12 “new” listings in March were properties that had previously been on the market for 90+ days.
This relisting strategy is an old agent trick—resetting the days-on-market counter to make a property look fresh. But buyers in 2025 aren’t fooled. They’re using tools like HouseSigma and Zealty to track listing history, price changes, and time on market. They know when a home’s been sitting. They know when a price drop isn’t real. And they’re not showing up just because the lawn looks greener in April.
The Open House Mirage
Spring is supposed to be peak open house season. But agents are reporting record-low attendance, even in popular neighborhoods.
One agent in Mount Pleasant shared on Reddit that she held four open houses in a weekend and had a total of three visitors—two were neighbors, one was “just browsing.” In North Burnaby, a $2.6M home with a view sat through two full weekends of open houses with zero buyer interest. None. Not one offer. Not even a conversation.
The reason? The price didn’t match the product. Buyers knew the home had been on the market since October. The photos were better than the in-person reality.
There’s a growing phenomenon in Vancouver’s spring market: the zombie listing. It’s up. It’s “live.” It’s being advertised. But no one’s engaging. No one’s offering. And no one wants to tell the seller the truth:
“It’s not the season. It’s your price.”
The Investor Buyer Is Gone. The Lifestyle Buyer Is Cautious. The First-Time Buyer Is Priced Out.
So who’s left?
Investors? They’ve moved on. Cash doesn’t chase 2% annual appreciation anymore.
Foreign buyers? Shut out (officially) and replaced by proxies who are buying less and holding longer.
Young families? Saddled with debt, stress tests, and stagnating wages. They’re still renting.
Downsizers? Holding off until they can sell their primary residence for what they think it’s worth.
This leaves a hollowed-out buyer pool. The only ones ready to buy are value hunters—people with capital who know the market is softening and are waiting for blood in the water. And when they do bid? They bid low. Often insultingly low. Not to be rude—but because they can. This is the environment sellers are walking into in spring 2025. It’s not “slow.” It’s frozen. And no amount of sunshine or tulips will change that.
The Unspoken Fear: What If This Is the New Normal?
“What if this isn’t a cycle?”
“What if this is just... how the market is now?”
Because for decades, Vancouver’s real estate economy thrived on boom-bust optimism. Prices would dip, sure—but always bounce back. Every lull was temporary. Every slowdown a “buying opportunity.” Every seller could count on at least one FOMO-fueled buyer willing to stretch. But in 2025? That faith is gone. And what’s replacing it is far more dangerous: acceptance of dysfunction.
This Isn’t a Bubble Popping—It’s a Market Going Comatose
Let’s be clear: Vancouver’s market isn’t crashing in the cinematic, apocalyptic sense. Prices aren’t plummeting 30% overnight. Realtors aren’t sobbing in their Range Rovers. Banks aren’t repossessing homes en masse. But what we are seeing is something potentially worse: a long, drawn-out freeze where inventory keeps rising, sales volume keeps shrinking, prices stay sticky, sellers refuse to budge, buyers refuse to engage, developers pause launches, pre-sales underperform, listings recycle endlessly, open houses get quiet, and everyone just... waits..
This isn’t a healthy correction. It’s a slow bleed. And it’s affecting every layer of the housing ladder—from entry-level condos to West Side estates. And it’s not going away next month. Or next quarter. Or maybe even next year.
The Policy Tools Aren’t Working—and the Will to Fix It Is Gone
Policymakers used to talk about “taming” Vancouver’s market. Cooling measures. Affordability strategies. Demand-side controls. But in 2025, the messaging has shifted.
Now it’s:
“Let’s wait and see.”
“It’s a global issue.”
“We’re focusing on rentals.”
“The foreign buyer ban needs more time.”
“The market will self-correct.”
Translation? We’re out of ideas, and no one wants to spook the market further.
And with every quarter that passes, more politicians, bureaucrats, and economists seem content to just let the market rot slowly—quietly hoping that rising wages, falling rates, and magical unicorn buyers will return someday to save us. They won’t.
The Longer the Market Freezes, the More Damage Gets Locked In
Developers are shelving mid-tier projects in favor of luxury builds for hypothetical offshore money.
Buyers are getting older without entering the market.
Sellers are aging in place, unable to downsize because their homes won’t sell.
Young families are moving to Alberta.
Speculators are bleeding cash but holding on, unwilling to realize losses.
Builders are going bankrupt quietly, tied up in pre-sale delays and financing cliffs.
City revenue is shrinking, as transaction taxes dry up and permit applications stall.
The rental market is overheated, as would-be buyers crowd the leasing pool and push monthly rates to record highs.
This isn’t a pause. This is a structural breakdown. And the longer it lasts, the harder it becomes to reverse.
The Worst Part? Everyone’s Still Lying About It
Developers are still listing “from the low $1.5Ms.”
Agents are still promising “spring activity.”
Sellers are still waiting “just one more month.”
CMHC is still pretending we’re in a soft landing.
Governments are still issuing press releases about “ambitious affordability plans.”
Meanwhile? The signs are everywhere. For Sale signs that haven’t moved in 120 days. Realtors changing their Instagram content to coffee reels. Homes that listed in fall 2023... and are still quietly live in spring 2025 with the same sticker price. No one wants to admit the obvious:
Nothing’s selling. And nothing’s going to sell until we face reality.
What Needs to Happen
We’re not going to sugarcoat this. There’s no quick fix. But if Vancouver wants to unfreeze, we need:
Sellers who price based on current market value, not post-pandemic nostalgia
Developers who build for local buyers, not foreign speculation
Realtors who tell clients the hard truth, not fairy tales
Buyers who make rational offers and stop hoping for 2016 prices
Governments who stop relying on transaction taxes and start focusing on livability and transparency
An honest public conversation about who housing is for—and what homes should be
Because right now, the only thing selling in Vancouver is delusion. And eventually? Even that market collapses.
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