The Myth of the Spring Rebound: Why Listings Are Up but Sales Are Not
May 16, 2025
Every year, like clockwork, the real estate world braces for the "spring rebound." The story goes: as the frost melts and flowers bloom, so too does the housing market wake from its winter slumber. More listings flood the market, eager buyers swarm open houses, and sales soar.
Except, in 2025, that spring rebound isn’t happening.
Yes, listings are up. Everywhere. New properties, fresh pre-sales, resale homes—agents are hustling, websites are crowded, and “just listed” signs pepper neighborhoods. But the sales? They’re stubbornly flat, or worse, declining in some key markets.
This paradox has puzzled many: how can the market have so many new options but so few actual transactions? Why is the much-anticipated spring selling season underperforming despite a clear increase in supply?
This article dives deep into the truth behind the numbers, exposing the cracks in the myth of the spring rebound. We'll analyze data, interview insiders, break down buyer psychology, and look at the underlying economic and policy factors. By the end, you'll understand why listings alone don’t equal sales—and why the Vancouver, BC, and wider Canadian housing markets might be in for a prolonged pause, not a rebound.
The Data Doesn't Lie: Listings Up, Sales Stuck
Across the Lower Mainland and many parts of BC, the volume of new listings in March and April 2025 is noticeably higher than the same period last year. Data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) and Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) confirms this:
Listings in Metro Vancouver surged by 18% compared to Spring 2024.
In Fraser Valley, listings rose 22%, a significant jump from the sluggish winter months.
Burnaby, Richmond, and Surrey saw their highest new listing counts since 2021.
Yet sales barely budged:
Sales volume in Metro Vancouver remained flat, barely 1% higher than last spring.
Fraser Valley saw a 3% decline in sales despite record new inventory.
The luxury condo market in downtown Vancouver reported an oversupply, with sales down 8% despite 30% more listings.
So what’s going on?
Why More Listings Aren’t Driving More Sales
Rising Interest Rates Are Choking Buyer Demand
The biggest factor dampening sales is the cost of borrowing.
Since early 2022, the Bank of Canada has raised rates multiple times to fight inflation, pushing mortgage rates from historic lows near 2% to over 6% by mid-2025. The impact is brutal:
Monthly mortgage payments for a median-priced home have increased by 40-50%.
Many buyers who qualified pre-rate hikes now find themselves priced out.
The infamous "stress test" means borrowers must prove they can afford payments at even higher rates.
The result? Even if listings multiply, fewer buyers can afford to pull the trigger.
Buyer Psychology: Waiting for a “Better Deal”
In addition to affordability, buyer sentiment plays a huge role.
Many potential buyers are holding off, convinced that prices will fall further.
The media narrative about a "market correction" has ingrained a wait-and-see mentality.
This creates a feedback loop: listings increase as sellers try to offload, but buyers hesitate, so sales stall.
The Role of Investor Pullback and Foreign Buyer Policies
Investor activity, a major market driver for years, has pulled back:
Stricter foreign buyer bans and taxes reduced speculative demand.
Investors are hesitant amid higher borrowing costs and uncertain price trends.
This leaves more properties listed but fewer quick sales.
The Supply-Side Reality: Who’s Listing and Why?
It’s not just more listings; it’s who’s listing—and why—that matters.
Motivated Sellers Pushing Listings Higher
Some homeowners who bought at peak prices in 2021-2022 are now selling to cut losses or downsize.
Others list out of necessity—job relocations, family changes, or debt pressures.
These motivated sellers increase listings but often accept lower prices, making buyers cautious about value.
New Builds and Pre-Sale Units Flooding the Market
Developers are rushing to clear inventory:
Many pre-sale projects launched in 2021-2023 are now nearing completion and hitting the resale market.
Builders offer aggressive incentives, discounts, and flexible terms to attract buyers.
Yet despite these moves, many units linger unsold or are relisted multiple times.
Regional Breakdown: Vancouver vs. Fraser Valley vs. Kelowna
The spring rebound myth plays out differently across regions.
Vancouver proper: High prices and limited affordability keep sales sluggish despite listing increases.
Fraser Valley: More balanced prices but lingering buyer caution slow transactions.
Kelowna & Okanagan: Emerging markets show more activity but are still impacted by broader interest rate pressures.
Government Policies and Their Impact on Market Dynamics
Policy changes intended to cool the market are still exerting pressure:
Foreign Buyer Tax continues to limit overseas investment.
Vacancy Taxes and Speculation Taxes deter speculative holding.
Mortgage stress tests remain stringent.
Local zoning restrictions limit supply growth, keeping prices elevated.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors in 2025
Buyers
Patience is critical—expect slower markets and more negotiation power.
Focus on affordability and long-term value, not market hype.
Watch interest rate trends closely and get pre-approved.
Sellers
Price realistically; don’t expect a quick sale just because it’s spring.
Prepare for longer listing times and possibly multiple price reductions.
Consider alternative selling strategies if stuck.
Investors
Be cautious with assumptions about quick flips or appreciation.
Understand local policies impacting investment returns.
Look for emerging markets with potential.
Expert Perspectives on the Spring Rebound Myth
Real estate agents, economists, and mortgage brokers weigh in on why the market is stuck despite more listings. The consensus: affordability constraints and cautious buyer psychology are overriding typical seasonal patterns.
The Myth of the Spring Rebound Is Over—Welcome to a New Market Reality
The traditional spring rebound, fueled by pent-up demand and rising sales, is a relic of the past. Listings alone no longer drive sales. Instead, a complex web of affordability issues, buyer psychology, and policy changes is rewriting the rules.
Navigating this market requires new strategies, sober expectations, and a clear-eyed view of both risks and opportunities.
